Lighthouse Quick Takes - Why monthly occupancy forecast accuracy hides daily misses

A hotel beats its monthly occupancy forecast by six tenths of a point, and the room celebrates. But averaging 30 days of forecasted and actual occupancy can hide daily misses of eight, twelve, even sixteen percentage points. In this Lighthouse Quick Take, Blake Reiter explains why over-forecasts and under-forecasts don't cancel out operationally, even when they cancel out on paper.

Blake walks through how a 12-point over-forecast drives excess labor and food waste, while a 16-point under-forecast strains front desk and housekeeping staffing and can surface in guest reviews. The lesson: measure forecast accuracy in absolute terms, not net averages, and look for where daily misses cluster.