Final countdown to the World Cup

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is almost here. Three host countries, 16 host cities, 104 matches across 39 days, and a flood of international demand that's already reshaping summer travel across North America. In the latest Spotlight Podcast episode, Lighthouse and Expedia combined data from two of the largest travel data sets in the industry to break down exactly what is happening market by market.

If you have 35 minutes, watch the full episode. If you have five, here is everything you need to know.

The Big Picture: 2026 Is a Different Beast Than 1994

The last time the United States hosted the World Cup was 1994. This time around, the tournament is exponentially larger. Three host countries instead of one. 104 matches instead of 52. 39 tournament days. 16 host cities ranging from massive markets like Los Angeles (1,100+ hotels and 100,000+ rooms) to newcomers like Kansas City, which holds roughly 20% of LA's supply.

That mix of supply variation, three-country geography, and global fan appeal is creating very different demand stories in every single host market.

Hotel Inventory: Still Plenty of Room to Sell

Across all FIFA host cities, an average of 70% of total rooms are still bookable (as of the first half of May). That number has actually ticked up two percentage points over the last two weeks as group blocks release back into general inventory.

Markets carrying the largest share of bookable rooms right now: San Francisco and Atlanta.

Markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in available rooms: Toronto, Vancouver, and San Francisco. These cities may have more need to drive demand as we approach kickoff.

Markets running tightest: Guadalajara, Houston, and Dallas, which are showing the largest year-over-year decrease in available rooms. Expect strong compression and notable rate impact in these three.

Geography Matters More Than You Think

A lot of host cities have their stadiums well outside the city center. Dallas, for example, hosts its matches at AT&T Stadium in Arlington (temporarily renamed ‘Dallas Stadium for the World Cup), roughly 30 to 45 minutes from downtown. Boston's matches are at Gillette in Foxborough (about 45 minutes out). San Francisco's stadium sits in Santa Clara. Miami's Hard Rock Stadium splits the difference between Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

That distance opens up secondary markets in a major way.

Fort Worth is growing nearly 5x the rate of Dallas, at roughly $50 lower ADR. Foxborough is seeing over 1,000% year-over-year growth in search intent on game dates. Las Vegas, the Florida Keys, and Whistler (a few hours from Vancouver) are all picking up real spillover demand.

If you operate a hotel two to three hours from a host city, you should be pricing and merchandising for this tournament too.

The Lighthouse Demand Index: Three games exemplify the demand impact

The Lighthouse Demand Index is a composite score benchmarked against a normal night in a given market. A score of 1 is typical. 3 is high. 4+ is extreme. The index factors in hotel supply changes, rate evolution, forward-looking flight data, and search demand patterns.

Three games are currently the demand leaders for their host country:

• Vancouver: Australia vs Turkey sitting at a 3.6 on the Demand Index. Vancouver inventory is historically tight, hotels opened up rooms late, and summer in Vancouver is expensive even without a World Cup.

• Guadalajara: Mexico vs South Korea has been a top performer for months. Guadalajara rarely hosts events of this scale, and pairing that with a Mexico home game creates a perfect storm.

• Kansas City: Argentina vs Algeria is one of the longest-running fan favorites. One of the two smallest host cities in terms of hotel supply is welcoming the biggest soccer superstar on the planet.

Kansas City's surprise: International demand from all sides

Kansas City overall trends 80 to 90% domestic demand for World Cup dates, with the Argentina game being the exception. International search share for that match is up to 32%, and total demand is 2x what the market saw last year for the same period.

The interesting part: the international intent goes well beyond Argentinian fans. Canadians, Mexicans, and UK travelers are all showing the highest traveler intent into Kansas City. Kansas City offers a relatively affordable way to see Messi compared to bigger markets, and that value proposition is pulling fans in from neighboring countries who want a Messi moment without paying Miami or New York rates.

Pricing: Who's Climbing, Who's Cooling

At the time of recording (first half of May), here’s who was rising and cooling off:

Risers

- Kansas City - Argentina vs Algeria: +5.5%

- Kansas City - Round of 32: +5%+

- Kansas City - Tunisia vs Netherlands: +5%

Cooling markets

- Vancouver - New Zealand vs Belgium: down nearly 10%

- Philadelphia - Round of 16: softer (rates still elevated)

- Guadalajara - Uruguay vs Spain: small drop (rates still very elevated)

The biggest % pricing growth market overall: Houston

Houston started as the lowest-priced World Cup market, has the most budget inventory of any host city (average star rating of 2.97), and is now experiencing the largest rate jumps. Traveler intent into Houston is up 170% year over year. The Netherlands vs Sweden game is the standout (50%+ growth in interest). Ronaldo's two Portugal games are pulling fans away from Miami where Portugal tickets sold out, with diehards rerouting to Houston to chase availability.

Why New York is still dropping

New York has so much inventory and so much competing demand that it absorbs major events rather than spiking from them. The same pattern played out for the Super Bowl. Add in the fact that the actual stadium sits in New Jersey (MetLife), and some travelers are choosing to stay closer to the venue or further from Manhattan rates. New York remains its own animal.

Other markets to watch

- Atlanta, USA shows promise for each game night, but shoulder nights leave something to be desired. Spain matchups, Morocco vs Haiti, and South Africa vs Czechia are all up meaningfully versus 200 days out, and Atlanta offers solid value to see a top-ranked for lower-end prices

- Monterrey, MX is cooling. The market got the minimum three group stage games and missed out on a Mexico home match. The strongest pricing growth in Monterrey is now the night before its Round of 32 game. This is also a market where short-term rentals can be had for cheaper than the standard hotel stay, adding additional downward rate pressure.

- Toronto, CA has accelerated meaningfully in the last few weeks with Germany, Ivory Coast, and Croatia vs Panama showing steady pricing power.

- Philadelphia (USA) Has a standout group game in Brazil vs Haiti, although its other matchups look far softer.

Toronto is capturing longer LOS travel searches

Toronto stands out as the host city with the largest share of search demand in the 8 to 14 day length-of-stay bucket. That suggests international travelers are using Toronto as a home base for the tournament. This is the exact behavior the entire industry hoped to see when the host cities were announced. If you operate in Toronto, this is great news that you may want to build your strategies around.

International vs Domestic: 40% of Demand Is Coming From Abroad

International travelers make up 40% of total World Cup demand, and international search volume is up 50% year over year for these dates and cities. It’s still very much a world cup.

Top international source markets searching into the US (in no particular order)

• Brazil

• Canada (a surprise given they have their own host cities)

• Mexico (also a surprise for the same reason)

• Japan (the biggest unexpected entrant)

• UK

Canadian and Mexican demand is heavy, likely because fans want to chase superstars playing on US soil, or follow alternate teams they support. Japan in particular has emerged as a major story.

Market-Level International Stories

Miami: Brazil vs Scotland has the potential to be a breakout game. Search demand is up 95% year over year. Per Expedia, 75% of interest is international, and ADRs are running nearly double the prior year. Brazilians are coming to support their team in force.

Miami: Portugal vs Colombia is balanced between domestic and international, but international demand is driving strong incremental growth. If you are a Miami hotelier, build campaigns for international travelers around this match. Tickets are expensive, so hoteliers may need to build in incentives to make this a surefire winner.

Dallas: Japan is the breakout source market. Both Japan matches in Dallas are pulling the largest share of international traveler intent, with international visitors accounting for over 65% of hotel searches. Search demand is up more than 240%, and Japan ranks as the #1 source country into Dallas for the period. Japanese fans travel well, there are direct flight options from Tokyo, and there are major MLB games happening during the World Cup window which may sweeten the deal for Japanese travelers. The takeaway: Dallas hoteliers should be targeting packages and promotions at Japanese travelers.

New York: international demand is strongest for the Round of 32 and Round of 16 games, not the group stage - signalling that a reliance on domestic demand may be in order for the first few weeks of the tournament.

The Luxury vs Budget Story

According to Expedia, luxury rate growth is running at roughly 50% across the various markets, even in those cities that hosted the Club World Cup last year. Luxury source markets searching most aggressively: Canada, UK, Brazil, Mexico, and Japan.

One important nuance: luxury travelers are converting at high rates but booking shorter stays (typically two to three nights). The working theory is that more affluent guests are able to jetset and follow their teams around the continent. Build messaging and packages around the team they are chasing, not the destination.

Luxury price benchmarks

New York, Miami, Boston:

These markets are priced more aggressively for luxury offerings with rates in excess of $600

San Francisco, Toronto, Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale:

Rates are in the high $400s to $500s for a five-star (notably better value, which is driving growth in these markets).

The Budget Traveler Is the One Booking Ahead

Budget travelers are converting earlier and at higher volume right now. According to Expedia data, budget rates are up 35 to 40% across host cities. Vacation rentals are also raising rates, but not as aggressively as hotels. International travelers are often price-sensitive and tend to lock in inventory well in advance, so hoteliers in budget and midscale segments should be capturing this demand now. Markets like Houston offer potential lower rates that are looking increasingly attractive to budget travelers.

Conversion Levers: What's Actually Driving Bookings

When the Expedia team analyzed promotional levers across host cities, three stood out.

Package deals (air + hotel or car + hotel bundles) are the foundational strategy. Toronto, New York City, and Miami have the highest share of hotels still offering strong package deals.

Closed user groups, loyalty, and membership rates are converting strongly. With ADRs as elevated as they are, travelers are leaning hard into memberships to unlock better rates. Hoteliers should be activating loyalty pricing and CUG offers.

Length-of-stay incentives convert well when communicated clearly. New York and Miami lead the space in length-of-stay coverage and incentives.

Mobile is quiet right now, but expect that to change dramatically once the knockout rounds begin and travel plans start shifting last minute. Have a mobile merchandising strategy ready.

The Final Word for Hoteliers

With less than 30 days to kickoff, three themes matter most:

Target international travelers.

They are driving incremental growth right now. Invest in visibility, set the right pre-arrival expectations, and build length-of-stay strategies for travelers who plan to use your market as a base.

Price for both ends of the market.

Luxury and budget are both performing. Make sure your pricing and inventory strategy reflects where your property actually sits, and watch shift-share carefully so you don't lose volume.

Open up your inventory and your visibility.

If you are still holding rooms back hoping for $1,000 rates in a market that is not pricing there, now is the time to adjust. Make sure shoulder dates are logically priced compared with game nights, and that your property is bookable across all of the channels your guests are searching.

The World Cup is going to be massive. Make sure your hotel is visible, priced right, and ready.

Special thanks to Bianca Navarro and Alex Fromson at Expedia Group for joining this episode.