Do branded hotels have a pricing advantage over independents? A case study of 3 European football finals

As the European football season wrapped up, three major finals sent demand soaring  in Bilbao, Wrocław, and Munich. Big events like these were always going to create a surge – the question was how hotels would respond. At Lighthouse, we set out to find the answer. How did the markets react, and which hotels capitalized best?

Our data reveals a clear trend: during these high-demand, high-reward events, branded hotels consistently captured higher rates, while independent hotels were slower to respond to fast-changing conditions.

So what gave branded properties the edge? Where did strategies diverge, and, more importantly, what can we learn from it?

A scoring opportunity for local hotels as demand surges

The end of the domestic European football season is now marked by three major cup finals in quick succession. In 2025, these were:

• The Europa League Final. Held May 21 in Bilbao, Spain.

• The UEFA Conference League Final. Held May 28 in Wroclaw, Poland.

• The Champions League Final. Held May 31 in Munich, Germany.

This trio of high-stakes matches on the European stage proved irresistible to football fans from participating teams. 

In 2025 they came from some of Western Europe’s biggest economies, namely France, England, Italy and Spain, with an especially large English contingent as a result of having three teams across the finals. 

All three events were significant demand drivers for their host cities, causing substantial spikes in demand on the night of the final. For the Champions League, this heightened demand extended to dates on either side of the final as well. 

Using our daily demand indicator, which is a composite of forward-looking metrics that show emerging demand, we were able to compare the demand level for these finals to the same dates in 2024 just before they were held to show how impactful these can be.

On the day of respective finals demand had increased:

• +151% in Bilbao versus 2024.

• +162% in Wroclaw versus 2024.

• +231% in Munich versus 2024.

A game of two halves: Branded vs. independent 

Such significant interest inevitably caught the attention of local hoteliers. These football matches propelled weekly average room rates to their highest 2025 levels in Bilbao and Wroclaw (based on actualized prices or rates advertised for the rest of the year); and pushed them above $400 in Munich. 

Actualized rates often more than doubled in the host cities during the week of the final or immediately after, creating major revenue opportunities. In Munich, peak pricing soared to over $400 on average, a stark contrast to the $100 to $150 seen in surrounding weeks.

However, another pattern emerged: a discrepancy between the rates branded hotels achieved and the lower average rates experienced by independent hotels. 

In all three host cities, independent hotels lagged behind their branded counterparts in average actualized prices, with the combined pricing differential across the finals averaging around 10%. This equates to a shortfall of nearly $30 per room night for independent hotels during these peak weeks.

Hotel room price evolution as the finals draw near

A closer look at daily pricing through our tools (which show average prices for a given lead time where data is sufficient) reveals wide variation. However, branded hotels typically maintained comparatively higher rates on most days leading up to the events.

This difference was most pronounced in Bilbao. Our dataset for independent hotels in Bilbao showed that from 40 to 20 days before the Europa League Final, daily prices for a standard room in a branded hotel averaged $869, versus $566 for independents— a striking $303 difference, or a 54% gap. 

Analysis of hotel pricing evolution in Bilbao, Munich, and Wroclaw from 120 days out to 10 days before the finals consistently shows branded hotels ahead.

In Munich and Wroclaw, the gap between these two hotel types was much smaller. Notably, in Munich, branded and independent hotel prices were within 5% of each other on most days. 

Focusing on Wroclaw and Munich, an averaged view for both cities (from 120 days out to 10 days before the finals) reveals the rate evolution and confirms that branded hotels typically held an edge throughout this period. 

Data on the hotel pricing evolution, averaged for Munich and Wroclaw, and the daily difference between branded and independent hotels further illustrates this trend from 120 days out.

Across these 120 days there are only two noticeable periods where independent hotels achieve a higher average daily price, from 90 to 80 days out and two-to-three weeks out from the event. 

In total branded hotels posted higher rates on 92 days of the 120, with the average difference sitting at 3% and the greatest swings in pricing strategy come in the closing weeks before the events, from branded hotels being priced -6% below independent counterparts 22 days out, to being 8% more expensive with 13 days to go. 

This pattern suggests that independent hotels, perhaps not having optimized their pricing throughout the booking window, resorted to more frequent and reactive price adjustments in the final lead-up to the event in an effort to capture as much revenue as possible from their remaining inventory.

Leveling the playing field: Bridging the resource gap for independent hoteliers

While differences in property characteristics, locations, and even regional nuances in clientele can explain some of the pricing differential. However, the consistent pricing advantage of branded hotels, even in strong independent markets like Munich, suggests a deeper, systemic issue at play. This being the dual challenges of data asymmetry and resource disparity.

Branded hotel chains and larger groups typically operate with dedicated revenue managers, or even entire revenue management teams. These are supported by sophisticated commercial technology stacks, providing them with in-depth market insights and analytical capabilities. This enables branded hoteliers to proactively adjust pricing strategies based on long-term demand forecasts and subtle market shifts.

In contrast, you'll often operate with a one or two person team, doing everything from room pricing to room cleaning. 

This can leave you less attuned to your market's demand landscape; trying to react when you notice high-priority signals rather than shaping a pro-active pricing strategy. 

Our data indicates this reactive approach often results in short-term price variations in the crucial weeks leading up to major events. As you attempt to catch up this price volatility can often mean you are not consistently making the most of true demand with the correct pricing. 

The consequence? Missed opportunities and, ultimately, a hit to your revenue potential. However, this technological and resource gap is no longer an insurmountable barrier.

The answer lies in leveraging cost-efficient, AI-driven, dynamic pricing tools and integrated channel management. These tools can automate the analysis of market demand, competitor pricing, and occupancy – providing intelligent rate recommendations for your property and automatic distribution of these room rates across your chosen channels. 

This effectively takes care of complex market analysis, pricing changes and distribution management for you. So when a key revenue driving event comes along – such as a European football final – you are safe in the knowledge you are fully capitalizing on it. 

It ensures you capture your fair share of revenue during peak demand periods and beyond, all without the need for a dedicated revenue manager or additional workload. 

Discover how Lighthouse can help you work smarter to level the playing field with larger branded properties.